Implications of Five Different Risk Models In Primary Prevention Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: A lack of consensus exists across guidelines as to which risk model should be used for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Our objective was to determine potential improvements in the number needed to treat (NNT) and number of events prevented (NEP) using different risk models in patients eligible for risk stratification. METHODS: A retrospective observational cohort was assembled from primary care patients in Ontario, Canada between January 1st, 2010, to December 31st, 2014 and followed for up to 5 years. Risk estimation was undertaken in patients 40-75 years of age, without CVD, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs), a recalibrated FRS (R-FRS), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2), and the low-risk region recalibrated SCORE2 (LR-SCORE2). RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 47,399 patients (59% women, mean age 54). The NNT with statins was lowest for SCORE2 at 40, followed by LR-SCORE2 at 41, R-FRS at 43, PCEs at 55, and FRS at 65. Models that selected for individuals with a lower NNT recommended statins to fewer, but higher risk patients. For instance, SCORE2 recommended statins to 7.9% of patients (5-year CVD incidence 5.92%). The FRS, however, recommended statins to 34.6% of patients (5-year CVD incidence 4.01%). Accordingly, the NEP was highest for the FRS at 406 and lowest for SCORE2 at 156. CONCLUSIONS: Newer models such as SCORE2 may improve statin allocation to higher risk groups with a lower NNT but prevent fewer events at the population level.

Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Wait-Time Management: Derivation and Validation of the Canadian TAVI Triage Tool (CAN3T).

BACKGROUND: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has seen indication expansion and thus exponential growth in demand over the past decade. In many jurisdictions, the growing demand has outpaced capacity, increasing wait times and preprocedural adverse events. In this study, we derived prediction models that estimate the risk of adverse events on the waitlist and developed a triage tool to identify patients who should be prioritized for TAVI. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included adult patients in Ontario, Canada referred for TAVI and followed up until one of the following events first occurred: death, TAVI procedure, removal from waitlist, or end of the observation period. We used subdistribution hazards models to find significant predictors for each of the following outcomes: (1) all-cause death while on the waitlist; (2) all-cause hospitalization while on the waitlist; (3) receipt of urgent TAVI; and (4) a composite outcome. The median predicted risk at 12 weeks was chosen as a threshold for a maximum acceptable risk while on the waitlist and incorporated in the triage tool to recommend individualized wait times. Of 13 128 patients, 586 died while on the waitlist, and 4343 had at least 1 hospitalization. A total of 6854 TAVIs were completed, of which 1135 were urgent procedures. We were able to create parsimonious models for each outcome that included clinically relevant predictors. CONCLUSIONS: The Canadian TAVI Triage Tool (CAN3T) is a triage tool to assist clinicians in the prioritization of patients who should have timely access to TAVI. We anticipate that the CAN3T will be a valuable tool as it may improve equity in access to care, reduce preventable adverse events, and improve system efficiency.

Do the Few Dictate Care for the Many? Revascularisation Considerations That Go Beyond the Guidelines.

The burden of coronary artery disease (CAD) is large and growing, commonly presenting with comorbidities and older age. Patients may benefit from coronary revascularisation with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), yet half of patients with CAD who would benefit from revascularisation fall outside the eligibility criteria of trials to date. As such, the choice of revascularisation procedures varies depending on the CAD anatomy and complexity, surgical risk and comorbidities, the patient's preferences and values, and the treating team's expertise. The recent American guidelines on coronary revascularisation are comprehensive in describing recommendations for PCI, CABG, or conservative management in patients with CAD. However, individual challenging patient presentations cannot be fully captured in guidelines. The aim of this narrative review is to summarise common clinical scenarios that are not sufficiently described by contemporary clinical guidelines and trials in order to inform heart team members and trainees about the nuanced considerations and available evidence to manage such cases. We discuss clinical cases that fall beyond the current guidelines and summarise the relevant evidence evaluating coronary revascularisation for these patients. In addition, we highlight gaps in knowledge based on a lack of research (eg, ineligibility of certain patient populations), underrepresentation in research (eg, underenrollment of female and non-White patients), and the surge in newer minimally invasive and hybrid techniques. We argue that ultimately, evidence-based medicine, patient preference, shared decision making, and effective heart team communications are necessary to best manage complex CAD presentations potentially benefitting from revascularisation with CABG or PCI.

Validation of the European SCORE2 models in a Canadian primary care cohort.

AIMS: Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Model 2 (SCORE2) was recently developed to predict atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in Europe. Whether these models could be used outside of Europe is not known. The objective of this study was to test the validity of SCORE2 in a large Canadian cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: A primary care cohort of persons with routinely collected electronic medical record data from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2014, in Ontario, Canada, was used for validation. The SCORE2 models for younger persons (YP) were applied to 57 409 individuals aged 40-69 while the models for older persons (OPs) were applied to 9885 individuals 70-89 years of age. Five-year ASCVD predictions from both the uncalibrated and low-risk region recalibrated SCORE2 models were evaluated. The C-statistic for SCORE2-YP was 0.74 in women and 0.69 in men. The uncalibrated SCORE2-YP overestimated risk by 17% in women and underestimated by 2% in men. In contrast, the low-risk region recalibrated model demonstrated worse calibration, overestimating risk by 100% in women and 36% in men. The C-statistic for SCORE2-OP was 0.64 and 0.62 in older women and men, respectively. The uncalibrated SCORE2-OP overestimated risk by more than 100% in both sexes. The low-risk region recalibrated model demonstrated improved calibration but still overestimated risk by 60% in women and 13% in men. CONCLUSION: The performance of SCORE2 to predict ASCVD risk in Canada varied by age group and depended on whether regional calibration was applied. This underscores the necessity for validation assessment of SCORE2 prior to implementation in new jurisdictions.

In this study, new tools [Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Model 2 (SCORE2)] that were developed across Europe to predict heart attack and stroke risk in healthy individuals were tested independently for the first time in a Canadian setting. Key findings are as follows:The accuracy of predictions from SCORE2 in Canadians depends on the age group considered and whether uncalibrated or recalibrated equations are being used.Independent assessment of tools such as SCORE2 remains useful prior to widespread implementation in new jurisdictions.

Trajectories of P2Y12 inhibitor adherence in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

PURPOSE: P2Y12 inhibitors (P2Y12i) reduce cardiac events after acute coronary syndromes (ACS). However, suboptimal P2Y12i adherence persists. We aimed to examine P2Y12i non-adherence using group-based trajectory methods and to identify adherence predictors. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study using administrative data in Ontario, Canada of patients ≥65 years admitted for ACS between April 2014 and March 2018 with a P2Y12i dispensed within 7 days of discharge. We used group-based trajectory models to characterize longitudinal 1-year adherence patterns. Predictors associated with each adherence trajectory were identified by multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: We included 11 917 patients using clopidogrel and 9763 using ticagrelor, aged [mean ± SD]: 77.33 ± 8.31/73.59 ± 6.79 years; men: 56.2%/65.4%, respectively. We identified 3 longitudinal adherence trajectories, that differed by agent: 75% of clopidogrel and 68% of ticagrelor patients showed a consistently adherent trajectory, while 13%/17% were gradually, and 12%/15% were rapidly non-adherent, respectively (p < 0.001). Differing baseline characteristics in each cohort were associated with observed adherence trajectories. Concomitant atrial fibrillation and prior bleeding history were associated with non-adherence among clopidogrel users. Among ticagrelor users, women and older persons were more likely to be rapidly non-adherent, adherence declining steeply starting 1 month post-ACS. CONCLUSIONS: We identified distinct adherence trajectories for clopidogrel and ticagrelor post-ACS, with 3 out of 4 clopidogrel patients but only 2 out of 3 ticagrelor patients in the consistently adherent trajectory. Intensive interventions targeted to the period of steep adherence decline post-ACS, particularly for women and older persons initiating ticagrelor, and patients with atrial fibrillation on clopidogrel should be considered and investigated further.

Development and Validation of the CANHEART Population-Based Laboratory Prediction Models for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in primary prevention assessments exclusively with laboratory results may facilitate automated risk reporting and improve uptake of preventive therapies. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate sex-specific prediction models for ASCVD using age and routine laboratory tests and compare their performance with that of the pooled cohort equations (PCEs). DESIGN: Derivation and validation of the CANHEART (Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team) Lab Models. SETTING: Population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: A derivation and internal validation cohort of adults aged 40 to 75 years without cardiovascular disease from April 2009 to December 2015; an external validation cohort of primary care patients from January 2010 to December 2014. MEASUREMENTS: Age and laboratory predictors measured in the outpatient setting included serum total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, platelets, leukocytes, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and glucose. The ASCVD outcomes were defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, and death from ischemic heart or cerebrovascular disease within 5 years. RESULTS: Sex-specific models were developed and internally validated in 2 160 497 women and 1 833 147 men. They were well calibrated, with relative differences less than 1% between mean predicted and observed risk for both sexes. The c-statistic was 0.77 in women and 0.71 in men. External validation in 31 697 primary care patients showed a relative difference less than 14% and an absolute difference less than 0.3 percentage points in mean predicted and observed risks for both sexes. The c-statistics for the laboratory models were 0.72 for both sexes and were not statistically significantly different from those for the PCEs in women (change in c-statistic, -0.01 [95% CI, -0.03 to 0.01]) or men (change in c-statistic, -0.01 [CI, -0.04 to 0.02]). LIMITATION: Medication use was not available at the population level. CONCLUSION: The CANHEART Lab Models predict ASCVD with similar accuracy to more complex models, such as the PCEs. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Association of Neighborhood-Level Marginalization With Health Care Use and Clinical Outcomes Following Hospital Discharge in Patients Who Underwent Coronary Catheterization for Acute Myocardial Infarction in a Single-Payer Health Care System.

BACKGROUND: Canadian data suggest that patients of lower socioeconomic status with acute myocardial infarction receive less beneficial therapy and have worse clinical outcomes, raising questions regarding care disparities even in universal health care systems. We assessed the contemporary association of marginalization with clinical outcomes and health services use. METHODS: Using clinical and administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we conducted a population-based study of patients aged ≥65 years hospitalized for their first acute myocardial infarction between April 1, 2010 and March 1, 2019. Patients receiving cardiac catheterization and surviving 7 days postdischarge were included. Our primary exposure was neighborhood-level marginalization, a multidimensional socioeconomic status metric. Neighborhoods were categorized by quintile from Q1 (least marginalized) to Q5 (most marginalized). Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality. A proportional hazards regression model with a robust variance estimator was used to quantify the association of marginalization with outcomes, adjusting for risk factors, comorbidities, disease severity, and regional cardiologist supply. RESULTS: Among 53 841 patients (median age, 75 years; 39.1% female) from 20 640 neighborhoods, crude 1- and 3-year mortality rates were 7.7% and 17.2%, respectively. Patients in Q5 had no significant difference in 1-year mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08 [95% CI, 0.95-1.22]), but greater mortality over 3 years (HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.03-1.22]) compared with Q1. Over 1 year, we observed differences between Q1 and Q5 in visits to primary care physicians (Q1, 96.7%; Q5, 93.7%) and cardiologists (Q1, 82.6%; Q5, 72.6%), as well as diagnostic testing. There were no differences in secondary prevention medications dispensed or medication adherence at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: In older patients with acute myocardial infarction who survived to hospital discharge, those residing in the most marginalized neighborhoods had a greater long-term risk of mortality, less specialist care, and fewer diagnostic tests. Yet, there were no differences across socioeconomic status in prescription medication use and adherence.

The Importance of Race and Ethnicity Data in Cardiovascular Health Research.

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the importance of addressing race and ethnic disparities in healthcare worldwide. In Canada, however, the lack of consistent capture of race and ethnicity data has hindered a comprehensive understanding of these potential disparities. This article explores the importance of and current progress in collecting race and ethnic data in Canada and provides examples of its importance in cardiovascular health outcomes. We believe that a successful implementation of standardized data collection tools on race and ethnicity data will shape evidence-based policies to minimize health disparities in Canada in the future.

Impact of Neighborhood Social Deprivation on Health Care Costs Associated With TAVR.

BACKGROUND: Cumulative costs of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) differ in the referral, procedural and postprocedural phases depending on patient comorbidities, type of procedure, and procedural complications. Our goal was to determine the association between neighborhood measures of social deprivation and TAVR costs in each of the 3 phases. METHODS: Demographics, patient comorbidities, procedural details, in-hospital complications, and costs for adults undergoing TAVR between 2017 and 2020 in Ontario, Canada were obtained from administrative databases and linked to social deprivation data using the Ontario Marginalization Index. The 3 dimensions of social deprivation assessed were (1) material deprivation, (2) residential instability, and (3) ethnic concentration. Hierarchical generalized linear models were used to determine the association between neighborhood social deprivation and cumulative TAVR costs, reported in 2018 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: We identified a total of 7617 TAVR referrals with 3784 patients undergoing TAVR within our study period. Cumulative mean costs in the referral, procedural and postprocedural phases were $8116±$11 374, $32 790±$17 766, and $18 901±$32 490, respectively. After adjustment for clinical and demographic variables, higher factor scores in residential instability were associated with greater cumulative costs in the postprocedural phase, whereas higher factor scores in the other 2 dimensions of marginalization were not significantly associated with higher costs in any of the 3 phases. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows that residential instability is associated with higher cumulative costs in the postprocedural phase of TAVR. This lays the foundation for future studies to understand the mechanism of this finding and identify potential mitigation policies.

Variation and clinical consequences of wait-times for atrial fibrillation ablation: population level study in Ontario, Canada.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac rhythm disorder. Emerging evidence supporting the efficacy of catheter ablation in managing AF has led to increased demand for this therapy, potentially outpacing the capacity to perform this procedure. Mismatch between demand and capacity for AF ablation results in wait-times which have not been comprehensively evaluated at a population level. Additionally, the consequences of such delays in AF ablation, namely the risk of hospitalization or adverse events, have not been studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: This observational cohort study included adults referred for catheter ablation to treat AF in Ontario, Canada, between 1 April 2016 and 31 March 2020. Wait-time was defined from referral to the earliest of ablation, death, off-list, or the study endpoint of 31 March 2022. The outcomes of interest included a composite of death, hospitalization for AF/heart failure, and emergency department visit for AF/heart failure. Our study cohort included 6253 patients referred for de novo AF ablation. The median wait-time for patients who received and who did not receive ablation was 218 days (IQR: 112-363) and 520 days (IQR: 270-763), respectively. Wait-time increased consistently for patients referred between October 2017 and March 2020. Mortality was rare, but significant morbidity was observed, affecting 19.2% of patients on the waitlist for AF ablation. Paroxysmal AF was associated with a statistically significant greater risk for adverse outcomes on the waitlist (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.18-1.93). CONCLUSION: Wait-times for AF ablation are increasing and are associated with significant morbidity.

Social Deprivation and Post-TAVR Outcomes in Ontario, Canada: A Population-Based Study.

Background Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR)/intervention has become the standard of care for treatment of severe aortic stenosis across the spectrum of risk. There are socioeconomic disparities in access to TAVR. The impact of these disparities on postprocedural outcomes remains unknown. Our objective was to examine the association between neighborhood-level social deprivation and post-TAVR mortality and hospital readmission. Methods and Results We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of all 4145 patients in Ontario, Canada, who received TAVR from April 1, 2017, to March 31, 2020. Our co-primary outcomes were 1-year postprocedure mortality and 1-year postprocedure readmission. Using Cox proportional hazards models for mortality and cause-specific competing risk hazard models for readmission, we evaluated the relationship between neighborhood-level measures of residential instability, material deprivation, and concentration of racial and ethnic groups with post-TAVR outcomes. After multivariable adjustment, we found a statistically significant relationship between residential instability and postprocedural 1-year mortality, ranging from a hazard ratio of 1.64 to a hazard ratio of 2.05. There was a significant association between the highest degree of residential instability and 1-year readmission (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.01-1.49]). There was no association between material deprivation and concentration of racial and ethnic groups with post-TAVR outcomes. Conclusions Residential instability was associated with increased risk for post-TAVR mortality, and the highest quintile of residential instability was associated with increased post-TAVR readmission. To reduce health disparities and promote an equitable health care system, further research and policy interventions will be required to identify and support economically and socially minoritized patients undergoing TAVR.

Predicting left main stenosis in stable ischemic heart disease using logistic regression and boosted trees.

BACKGROUND: The ISCHEMIA trial showed similar cardiovascular outcomes of an initial conservative strategy as compared with invasive management in patients with stable ischemic heart disease without left main stenosis. We aim to assess the feasibility of predicting significant left main stenosis using extensive clinical, laboratory and non-invasive tests data. METHODS: All adult patients who had stress testing prior to undergoing an elective coronary angiography for stable ischemic heart disease in Ontario, Canada, between April 2010 and March 2019, were included. Candidate predictors included comprehensive demographics, comorbidities, laboratory tests, and cardiac stress test data. The outcome was stenosis of 50% or greater in the left main coronary artery. A traditional model (logistic regression) and a machine learning algorithm (boosted trees) were used to build prediction models. RESULTS: Among 150,423 patients included (mean age: 64.2 ± 10.6 years; 64.1% males), there were 9,225 (6.1%) with left main stenosis. The final logistic regression model included 24 predictors and 3 interactions, had an optimism-adjusted c-statistic of 0.72 and adequate calibration (optimism-adjusted Integrated Calibration Index 0.0044). These results were consistent in subgroups of males and females, diabetes and non-diabetes, and extent of ischemia. The boosted tree algorithm had similar accuracy, also resulting in a c-statistic of 0.72 and adequate calibration (Integrated Calibration Index 0.0054). CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based study of patients with stable ischemic heart disease using extensive clinical data, only modest prediction of left main coronary artery disease was possible with traditional and machine learning modelling techniques.

Impact of outcome definitions on cardiovascular risk prediction in a contemporary primary prevention population.

BACKGROUND: Estimation of an individual's cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk may enhance risk discussion and treatment decisions. Yet, common cardiovascular outcomes such as heart failure (HF) or coronary revascularization are not included in the estimation of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Our objective was to determine the incidence of ASCVD in a contemporary primary prevention population with >10 years of follow-up and how incidence estimates change when incorporating additional cardiovascular endpoints. METHODS: We used the population-level Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team database of all Ontario residents alive 1 January 2008, aged 30-99 years, and with no prior history of CVD. Individuals were followed to 31 December 2018 for incident first and recurrent cardiovascular events. ASCVD outcomes were defined by hospitalizations for myocardial infarction, stroke, and circulatory death, while global CVD outcomes also included hospitalizations for unstable angina, transient ischemic attacks, peripheral arterial disease, out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, HF, and coronary revascularization. RESULTS: Among 7496 165 individuals free of CVD, their mean age was 50 years (SD: 13.9 years) and 52.3% were women. After 11 years of follow-up, the rate of an incident ASCVD event was 3.95 per 1000 person-years, while the rate of a global CVD event was almost doubled at 6.67 per 1000 person-years. The most common additional first manifestations of CVD were HF, which accounted for 12.0% of additional events and coronary revascularization, which accounted for 12.7%. When considering first and recurrent events, the rate of ASCVD was 5.20 per 1000 person-years, while the rate of all global CVD events was more than double at 10.90 per 1000 person-years. This was mainly due to a higher proportion of recurrent HF (13.8%) and coronary revascularization (23.2%) events. CONCLUSIONS: ASCVD accounts for just over half of all preventable first cardiovascular events and even fewer first and recurrent cardiovascular events in contemporary practice. Estimating broader CVD endpoints may enhance risk-discussions with patients and improve informed decision-making.

Clinical Outcomes in Younger Women Hospitalized With an Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Contemporary Population-Level Analysis.

BACKGROUND: For younger women with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), little is known regarding their contemporary care pathways and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We studied AMI patients aged 18-55 years, hospitalized from April 1, 2009, to March 31, 2019, in Ontario, Canada. We compared trends in comorbidities, angiographic findings, and revascularisation rates in men and women. The primary outcome was 1-year all-cause mortality or readmission for unstable angina, AMI, heart failure, or stroke. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to account for differences in baseline clinical characteristics between men and women. RESULTS: Among the 38,071 AMI patients included, 8,077 (21.2%) were women. Over the study period, women had increasing rates of diabetes (24.8% to 34.9%; Ptrend < 0.001), and declining rates of smoking (53.2% to 41.7%; Ptrend < 0.005). Although most patients received coronary angiography (96%), coronary revascularisation was less frequent among women than men (percutaneous coronary intervention: 61.9% vs 78.8% [P < 0.001]; surgery: 4.1% vs 6.0% [P < 0.001]). Women had more normal coronary anatomy (5.8% vs 1.7%; P < 0.001) and nonobstructive disease (22.8% vs 9.3%; P < 0.001) than men. Compared with men, the primary composite end point was significantly increased among women (10.0% vs 7.9%, adjusted HR 1.11; P = 0.02) and related to increased readmission rates for cardiovascular events. All-cause readmission was significantly increased among women (25.8% vs 21.1%, adjusted HR 1.34; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Coronary angiography is performed almost universally in younger women with AMI; however, coronary revascularisation is less frequent, perhaps reflecting less obstructive disease. Although mortality rates after AMI were similar between sexes, cardiovascular readmission rates and all-cause readmissions were significantly increased among women.

Prevalence and Treatment of Familial Hypercholesterolemia and Severe Hypercholesterolemia in Older Adults in Ontario, Canada.

Background: A simplified Canadian definition was recently developed to enable identification of individuals with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) and severe hypercholesterolemia in the general population. Our objective was to use a modified version of this new definition to assess contemporary disease prevalence, treatment patterns, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) control in Ontario, Canada. Methods: We identified individuals aged 66 to 105 years who were alive as of January 1, 2011, using the Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team (CANHEART) database, which was created by linking 19 population-based health databases in Ontario. Hypercholesterolemia was identified using LDL-C values. Cholesterol reduction and lipid-lowering treatment were assessed at time of diagnosis and after at least 2 and 5 years' follow-up. Results: Among 922,464 individuals, 2440 (0.26%) met criteria for definite or probable FH, and 72,893 (7.90%) for severe hypercholesterolemia. At diagnosis, mean LDL-C concentration was 9.52 mmol/L for those with definite FH, 5.83 mmol/L for those with probable FH, 5.73 mmol/L for those with severe hypercholesterolemia, and 3.33 mmol/L for all other individuals. After > 5 years, LDL-C concentration remained elevated at 3.58 mmol/L for those with definite FH, 2.72 mmol/L for those with probable FH, and 2.93 mmol/L for those with severe hypercholesteremia. Use of statin therapy was initially high (83% of those with definite FH, 78% of those with probable FH, 62% of those with severe hypercholesterolemia); however, fewer patients remained on statins at follow-up at > 5 years (62% of those with definite FH, 67% of those with probable FH, 58% of those with severe hypercholesterolemia). Conclusions: Among older Ontarians, we estimated that 1 in 378 individuals had FH, and 1 in 13 had severe hypercholesterolemia. Despite being at substantially increased cardiovascular risk, these patients acheived suboptimal LDL-C level control and fewer were on medical therapy at follow-up.

Introduction: Une définition canadienne simplifiée a récemment été élaborée pour permettre la détection des personnes atteintes d'hypercholestérolémie familiale (HF) et d'hypercholestérolémie grave au sein de la population générale. Notre objectif était d'utiliser la version modifiée de cette nouvelle définition pour évaluer la prévalence contemporaine de la maladie, les schémas de traitement et la maîtrise du cholestérol à lipoprotéines de faible densité (cholestérol LDL) en Ontario, au Canada. Méthodes: Nous avons recensé les individus âgés de 66 à 105 ans qui étaient en vie au 1er janvier 2011 à partir de la base de données Cardiovascular Health in Ambulatory Care Research Team (CANHEART), qui a été créée par la liaison de 19 bases de données populationnelles de l'Ontario. L'hypercholestérolémie a été définie par les valeurs du cholestérol LDL. Nous avons évalué la diminution du cholestérol et le traitement hypolipémiant au moment du diagnostic et après au moins les suivis après 2 ans et après 5 ans. Résultats: Parmi les 922 464 personnes, 2 440 (0,26 %) répondaient aux critères de diagnostic définitif ou de diagnostic probable d'HF, et 72 893 (7,90 %), aux critères d'hypocholestérolémie grave. Au diagnostic, les concentrations moyennes de cholestérol LDL étaient de 9,52 mmol/l chez ceux qui avaient un diagnostic définitif d'HF, de 5,83 mmol/l chez ceux qui avaient un diagnostic probable d'HF, de 5,73 mmol/l chez ceux qui avaient un diagnostic d'hypercholestérolémie grave et de 3,33 mmol/l chez toutes les autres personnes. Après > 5 ans, les concentrations de cholestérol LDL étaient demeurées élevées : 3,58 mmol/l chez ceux qui avaient un diagnostic définitif d'HF, 2,72 mmol/l chez ceux qui avaient un diagnostic probable d'HF et 2,93 mmol/l chez ceux qui avaient un diagnostic d'hypercholestérolémie grave. L'utilisation du traitement par statines était initialement élevée (83 % de ceux qui avaient un diagnostic définitif d'HF, 78 % de ceux qui avaient un diagnostic probable d'HF, 62 % de ceux qui avaient un diagnostic d'hypercholestérolémie grave). Toutefois, moins de patients avaient conservé les statines au suivi > 5 ans (62 % de ceux qui avaient un diagnostic définitif d'HF, 67 % de ceux qui avaient un diagnostic probable d'HF, 58 % de ceux qui avaient un diagnostic d'hypercholestérolémie grave). Conclusions: Parmi les Ontariens âgés, nous avons estimé que 1 sur 378 personnes avaient une HF, et que 1 sur 13 avaient une hypercholestérolémie grave. Malgré le fait qu'ils sont exposés à un risque cardiovasculaire substantiellement élevé, ces patients ont atteint une maîtrise sous-optimale du taux de cholestérol LDL et moins d'entre eux étaient sous traitement médical au suivi.

Population-Based Recalibration of the Framingham Risk Score and Pooled Cohort Equations.

BACKGROUND: The Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) overestimate risk in many contemporary cohorts. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine if recalibration of these scores using contemporary population-level data improves risk stratification for statin therapy. METHODS: Five-year FRS and PCEs were recalibrated using a cohort of Ontario residents alive January 1, 2011, who were 30 to 79 years of age without cardiovascular disease. Scores were externally validated in a primary care cohort of routinely collected electronic medical record data from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2014. The relative difference in mean predicted and observed risk, number of statins avoided, and number needed to treat with statins to reduce a cardiovascular event at 5 years were reported. RESULTS: The FRS was recalibrated in 6,938,971 Ontario residents (51.6% women, mean age 48 years) and validated in 71,450 individuals (56.1% women, mean age 52 years). Recalibration reduced overestimation from 109% to 49% for women and 131% to 32% for men. The recalibrated FRS was estimated to reduce statin prescriptions in up to 26 per 1,000 low-risk women and 80 per 1,000 low-risk men, as well as reduce the number needed to treat from 61 to 47 in women and from 53 to 41 in men. In contrast, after recalibration of the PCEs, risk remained overestimated by 217% in women and 128% in men. CONCLUSIONS: Recalibration is a feasible solution to improve risk prediction but is dependent on the model being used. Recalibration of the FRS but not the PCEs reduced overestimation and may improve utilization of statins.